Cobourg Skeptic – Climate Change and Resources

Many people who should know better often say “I know there’s global warming because the arctic ice and glaciers are melting”  Apart from the fact that this may have been true up to 10 years ago but not now, there is also the major problem that few are  arguing that point.  The issue is “is it man-made?”  And that has not been proved.  Another similar issue is “Is it caused by the increase in CO2 ?” Neither of these have been proved despite the fact that many have said that it’s settled.  The science has not been settled.

Maxime Bernier

Canada has been going along with the apparent world consensus, but now one Canadian politician has come out and been the first Canadian to declare that the “Emperor has no clothes”! Conservative MP Maxime Bernier from Quebec says the issue has been taken over by alarmism – and he applauds the Harper government for taking a go-slow approach.

“The debate over climate change, stifled for years by political correctness, has finally broken out in the media,” Bernier wrote in a letter published in Montreal’s La Presse today. “The numerous recent revelations on errors by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have supplemented the alternative theories put forward for many years.

“We can now see that it’s possible to be a ’skeptic,’ or in any case to keep an open mind, on just about all the main aspects of warming theory.”

“It would certainly be irresponsible to spend billions of dollars and impose exaggeratedly severe regulations to solve a problem whose gravity we’re still far from discerning,” Bernier wrote.

“The alarmism that has often characterized this issue is no longer valid. Canada is right to be prudent.”

He wrote that the planet obviously experienced warming over the last hundred years, but has stopped warming over the last decade even as carbon emissions skyrocketed. He said other factors, like the sun, could be responsible for changes in temperature, and he noted that at least one German researcher – Mojib Latif – even predicts the world could get cooler before it experiences a warming phase. Bernier says that if climate scientists can’t even agree on what will happen over the next decade, how could anyone trust their predictions about what will happen a century from now.

Rene Laprise, director of the Universite du Quebec a Montreal’s centre for climate studies and simulation heaped scorn on Bernier accusing him of being not scientific.  That’s exactly the attitude that got all the alarmists in trouble in the first place. When debating, one of the worst arguments to use is to quote authority without their actual reasoning or facts.  And that’s what’s been done for the last 10 years or so.  Sorry, it no longer works.

Despite being accused of losing credibility on Climate change, Stephen Harper, Canada’s Prime Minister said at the APEC conference today that there is no point in Canada implementing any CO2 reduction program unless developing countries commit to some reductions.  As he pointed out, developing countries currently contribute half of the current emissions and if they do not participate, they will soon contribute two thirds.  Further, there is no point in Canada having a program that’s different to the U.S. since as a neighbour ten times larger, they dominate the North American emissions and economy.

However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the developing countries, particularly African countries plus China and India see the negotiations currently being conducted as mostly economic.  That is clearly the case since cutting back on emissions would be a major economic burden on everyone.  From their point of view, why should they limit themselves before they even reach the level of development of countries like Europe and Australia that are making all the noise?

It doesn’t help that it’s becoming clearer that the supposed consensus does not in fact exist and there are still many unanswered questions.  Although Arctic ice is melting, the Antarctic ice is not and world temperatures now seem to be dropping not rising.  And it’s far from clear that anything Canada, or for that matter Australia could do would make one jot of difference to CO2 let alone any possible warming.  And as Harper points out, any reductions we make would be swamped by increases from India , China and others.

The left-leaning Toronto Star reported on Monday that the Conservative Government is stalling the bill which would implement a plan to meet Kyoto plus the expected Copenhagen commitments.  Conservative MP Mark Warawa, the parliamentary secretary to Environment Minister Jim Prentice, commented: “The NDP is proposing a climate change bill that would devastate the economic recovery and force Canada to diverge from the very singular targets that our government and President Obama have identified,”  The bill was originally introduced by Jack Layton leader of the leftist NDP opposition in October 2006
MPs will vote Wednesday, October 21st on whether Bill C-311, the Climate Change Accountability Act, which has received second reading, should be sent back to committee for further study.

“Weeks away from the most important global meeting of nations in many years, Canada’s Environment Minister is suggesting that the talks are unlikely to succeed. No wonder, with Canada itself having no plan to offer and, worse, being increasingly seen as a pariah on greenhouse gas pollution,” Jack Layton told a press conference Monday.

Bill C-311 would commit Canada to firm targets for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.

Jack accuses Stephen of not believing there's a warming crisis

Warawa told Parliament that Canada is not doing anything on its own without the United States acting in concert.  “The NDP, the Bloc and the Liberals just do not get it. They would have Canada move away from a North American target and isolate Canada for nothing,” he said.

“Everyone agrees that a climate change plan must be done in partnership with our international trading partners, and must include economic realities.”
Under the provisions of Bill C-311, Canada would commit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a disastrous 80 per cent by 2050, with 1990 serving as the base year. Interim targets and accountability reporting is also set out in the bill so that no matter which party is in power in the future, the law must be respected.

“The proposal from the Standing Committee that the Bill needs further debate will ensure that the House has nothing to offer the world in Copenhagen and that Stephen Harper’s unacceptable position will stand unchallenged,” Jack Layton told reporters. [Update - The key Liberal Opposition has said that they will not support this bill so it will not pass - at least not for a while]

Layton said the major stumbling block is Harper. “I believe that Stephen Harper fundamentally doesn’t believe that there is a crisis upon us … because otherwise there really isn’t any explanation for it,” he told the Toronto Star.

I for one hope he is right – maybe the Prime Minister does not believe there is a man-made warming crisis.  It’s more likely he is simply making sure Canada does not shoot itself in the foot and implement  commitments that create a severe disadvantage compared to the U.S. and for that matter, China and India.

The Saudis are conducting a quiet campaign at the UN climate change talks now taking place in Bangkok to include in such an agreement a bailout for oil producing countries that would be adversely affected by a climate change agreement. (Source)

When asked why Saudi Arabia had not used its oil wealth to diversify its economy, the head of the Saudi delegation to the Bangkok talks, Mohammad S. Al Sabban, suggested that the process was ongoing, but that it would take a great deal of time and that Saudi Arabia lacked resources.

While in reality there is really no  need for a climate change pact, such a pact would particularly hurt oil producing countries especially those like Saudi Arabia with few other sources of income. A climate change agreement that emphasizes the development of alternative energy sources, such as wind and solar, would decrease the value of their oil.

Some critics are accusing Saudi Arabia of making the demand for an oil producer bailout not so much in expectation of getting one but as a means of derailing the climate change pact and keeping the price of oil high and their future assured.

With more countries joining India, China and Africa in demanding compensation or at least an exception to any treaty, the chances of it happening are reducing.

Lord Christopher Monckton

And all this while yet another expert, Lord Christopher Monckton, the former science advisor to Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, said “There are environmental problems, but global warming is not one.”

He made the statement during a speech October 8th in Winnipeg entitled “Apocalypse No, Global Warming is not a Global Crisis but a Global Fraud”. More here.