Posts Tagged ‘Arctic’

No warming in last 10 years now confirmed by climatologists.

Friday, November 20th, 2009

The prestigious German magazine, Der Speigel, has published an article confirming that climate scientists are now certain that the world’s climate has not warmed at all between 1999 to 2008.  This despite the fact that the IPCC assumed it rose 0.2C in this time frame.

These same scientists say that the climate warmed by 0.7C from the late 1970’s to the late 1990’s but “At present, however, the warming is taking a break,” confirms meteorologist Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in the northern German city of Kiel. Latif, one of Germany’s best-known climatologists, says that the temperature curve has reached a plateau. “There can be no argument about that,” he says. “We have to face that fact.”

This raises doubts about the predictive value of climate models and Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg says “We don’t really know why this stagnation is taking place at this point.”

According to Der Speigel, just a few weeks ago, Britain’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research added more fuel to the fire with its latest calculations of global average temperatures. According to the Hadley figures, the world grew warmer by 0.07 degrees Celsius from 1999 to 2008 and not by the 0.2 degrees Celsius assumed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And, say the British experts, when their figure is adjusted for two naturally occurring climate phenomena, El Niño and La Niña, the resulting temperature trend is reduced to 0.0 degrees Celsius — in other words, a standstill.

Graph on warming trend - click for a larger version

Graph on warming trend - click for a larger version

The differences among individual regions of the world are considerable. In the Arctic, for example, temperatures rose by almost three degrees Celsius, which led to a dramatic melting of sea ice. At the same time, temperatures declined in large areas of North America, the western Pacific and the Arabian Peninsula. Europe, including Germany, remains slightly in positive warming territory.

Some scientists are trying to explain away the plateau but are concerned about their loss of credibility – surprise!

Source Der Speigel – translated into English

Another summary of why there is no man made warming

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

I am unhappy that the media are ignoring the ongoing evidence that man-made global warming is a myth but there are occasional good items. James Benedem of MATC Times, The Student Newspaper of Milwaukee Area Technical College, has written an excellent summary which I have reproduced below.

Skeptic: Person indisposed to accept popularity or authority as proving the truth of opinions.

The May 14 issue of the Times published an article on melting ice in the Arctic Ocean and labeled it an “accelerating crisis” that could lead to a “runaway catastrophe.”

The essay concludes: “What must we do… We already know the answer – drastically reduce greenhouse emissions.”  This is a response to that essay.

The real question concerning global warming: Is carbon dioxide the significant cause of warming the earth? It all hinges on this question: Does adding CO2 to the atmosphere make the world much warmer? Here is what skeptical scientists have to say about this question:

  • The “greenhouse signature” is missing. If greenhouse gases are warming the earth, computer models say we should see a “hot spot” of air 10 kilometers above the tropics.
  • Weather balloons from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program measured the global atmosphere during the warming period of 1979-1999 and found no sign of the predicted “hot spot.”
  • Ice cores reveal that CO2 levels rise and fall hundreds of years after temperatures change. They cannot be a cause of warming since they follow the warming, they do not precede it.
  • The world is not warming any more. Satellite data shows the world has not warmed since 2001, even though carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increased.
  • Carbon dioxide is already absorbing almost all of the light that it can. CO2 “soaks up” its favorite wavelengths of light and it is close to the saturation point. More CO2 in the atmosphere does not translate into significantly more warming.

There are many scientists who support these opinions. This past spring a conference was held in NYC to examine the “global warming theory” and over 30,000 scientists signed documents that supported the position that nature, not man, controls the planet.

Here are the words of just two of the many skeptics:

  • Botanist Dr. David Bellamy, a famous UK environmental campaigner and former lecturer at Durham University: “… global warming is largely a natural phenomenon. The world is wasting stupendous amounts of money on trying to fix something that can’t be fixed.”
  • Dr. Kiminori Itob, award- winning Ph.D. environmental chemist, on warming fears: “… the worst scientific scandal in the history… When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.”

Well, all of this wouldn’t matter so much if it were simply two people disagreeing over the weather.

But, the alarming fact is that Congress proposed legislation this past summer – it passed in the House of Representatives already – that would severely limit carbon emissions.

If this or anything similar were put into law, it would have a disastrous impact on the US economy.

President Obama clearly knew this when he said: “Under my plan of “Cap and Trade,” energy costs would necessarily skyrocket.”

The bill amounts to a huge tax on everyone – one that would fall most heavily on the poor. And it would be one more step along the path of government intrusion into the private affairs of every citizen.

Footnotes

  1. I have citations for every claim and quotation featured in this article. Please contact me if you would like to check them.
  2. The ice in the Antarctic is increasing at about the same rate as the Arctic is decreasing. This is a pattern that has happened before. And the polar bears are not in any danger, but are actually increasing in number.

For the original article, go here.

I am sure James would be happy to see this get wider circulation.

A different global warming mechanism

Monday, August 31st, 2009

We know that the earth warmed up a bit in the last 30-40 years – it was not as much as the model used by IPCC predicted but it did warm up.  Researchers in Canada’s Arctic say that warming there has been more than elsewhere and in fact has been about 2.5 Celsius.

Let’s assume that this warming was caused by the sun’s cycle although if you believe all the hypothetical science pushed by Al Gore et al that it was caused by man, that does not affect the key point, that the arctic has got warmer somehow.  And according to these researchers, this warming is, not surprisingly, melting the permafrost in the arctic tundra.  That’s in the land way to the north – mostly in Canada and Russia.

Permafrost in the Arctic

Permafrost in the Arctic

Locked in the permafrost is a very large amount of Carbon dioxide so when the permafrost warms up, the CO2 is released.  Further, when the CO2 is under water (e.g. in a lake or river or just a swamp), bacteria converts the CO2 to methane which is a lot worse than CO2 as a global warming gas. So arctic warming happening for whatever reason causes release of large quantities of greenhouse gases.  The top 10 feet of permafrost (it’s 160 to 2000 feet deep) holds about the same amount of carbon as is currently in the atmosphere.

So that would explain global warming from historical times – that is, a relatively small change in the sun causes release of methane and CO2 which makes the warming greater.  This becomes a positive feedback and makes the whole thing happen quite quickly.  It does not depend on anything men do but it is a greenhouse effect.  Research suggests that this did in fact happen.

For a more complete description of all this with the latest update, go here.

The lesson here?  We should focus on adapting to warming and not pretend we can stop it.  And depending on what the sun does, this whole cycle could still reverse.  The release from the permafrost only happens in mid-summer – a few good winters would stop it.